In the 2026 fantasy baseball season, each team has approximately 90 games down and approximately 70 games remaining through the first 15 weeks of the season. Since even 90-92 games aren’t enough to draw any conclusions, we’ll spend this midseason post looking at the risers and fallers in fantasy baseball from an under-the-hood stat perspective.
Despite a long Spring Training and twelve weeks of meaningful games, this production number isn’t much information to use when evaluating players throughout the season. That’s why it’s also important to look at usage, player placement, team breakdown, and other factors when trying to decide what to do with a tough player selection.
This piece will take a look at some of the MLB assets that have seen their fantasy value rise and fall over the past few weeks. Hopefully this will give us an idea of what to do with these players going forward.
After a big week, Javier Sanoja, the Miami Marlins’ utility man, may be the most popular hitter on the waiver wire until his roster percentage shoots up. His multi-position versatility alone makes Sanoja a fantastic pass rusher, but his recent production has made him impossible to ignore. Sanoja has earned at-bats every day while providing quality batting average, speed, and run production.
Sanoja has 12 hits in his seven starts, including a home run, nine RBI, and two stolen bases. Manager Clayton McCullough finds him a spot to play every day, and the 23-year-old is still getting bigger and better. Overall, Sanjoa is hitting .277/.320/.413, which means there isn’t much power, but both numbers are significantly higher than his first 135 games in the Major Leagues.
Ian Seymour (SP/RP), Tampa Bay Rays
After going more than six innings in two of the last three innings, Ian Seymour emerged as one of the most impressive players after taking a regular role in Tampa Bay’s rotation. The lefty has impressed with his ability to be a quick source of strikeouts (27 combined in his last three games). Tampa Bay also has an excellent history of helping young pitchers develop their arsenal, making Seymour an attractive long-term addition.
Seymour’s value extends beyond his high hitting. His command has continued to improve, and he now has a 1.08 WHIP and just four earned runs allowed over his last 18 innings, resulting in two quality starts and one 12-hit start. Seymour is now a fixture in the Tampa Bay Rays rotation.
Nico Hoerner (2B), Chicago Cubs
We don’t really like looking at statistical profiles in baseball and saying it’s just bad luck, but that might be what’s going on with Nico Hoerner. This is a player you’re going to trade for in the second half, not someone you’re looking to sell for 70 cents on the dollar. If nothing else, runs and steals should increase this summer.
If you’re looking for a BABIP adjustment champion in the second half of 2026, Hoerner should be your man. Despite an 8% slugging percentage (second best in MLB), Hoerner has a .242/.314/.337 line, including an 8.7% walk rate. However, all of that is dragged down by a .252 BABIP, which is a full 50 points below his career average.
That number is one of the 20 lowest BABIPs in the league right now, and it’s something that hasn’t gotten better in the first half of the season. All of Hoerner’s other stats are there. His line drives and fly balls are at a premium. His ground balls are low. Hoerner’s strikeout rate is just down from last season. His bat speed is the same, as is his contact rate. It’s coming, just be patient.
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
Cody Bellinger (OF), New York Yankees
Let me throw you Cody Bellinger’s numbers over the past two weeks. You decide what’s worse. Bellinger is hitting .106/.160/.149 in his last 50 plate appearances. He has a 30% strikeout rate and a 6% walk rate. He has no home runs, no runs, and no stolen bases. And just one RBI. His wRC+ is an incredible negative-16. Looking at the Yankees’ struggles over the past three weeks, one of the main reasons has to be Bellinger.
Are you having bad luck? Yes. He has a .156 BABIP, and his xwOBA is 70 points higher than his wOBA. Will that luck change? Maybe. All of his plate appearances are the same as or better than his career numbers. His home run rate per fly ball is down from last year, but that could go up. His exit velocity is up slightly from last year. There are some positive signs, but Bellinger has been awful lately.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B), Toronto Blue Jays
I benched Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in several fantasy baseball leagues. Do you too? Guerrero Jr. he just became MLB’s most disappointing first baseman in 2026, and there have been quite a few of them. After the 2024-2025 seasons, in which he hit .323/.396/.544 and .292/.381/.467, Guerrero is hitting .263/.345/.344 with fewer home runs (five, he hit one Wednesday!) than stolen bases (six). His SLG is 2oo points lower than in 2024.
Now that Fernando Tatis Jr. breaking his home slump, it’s time to pay attention to why Guerrero is struggling so much. He still has a 10% walk rate and a 12% strikeout rate, but a barrel rate (6.8%) that is half of what it was last year. What leads to that? It looks like it’s mainly his rush rate.
Last season, Guerrero had a 21% strikeout rate on pitches out of the zone. This year, that number has increased to more than 31%, resulting in a first strike rate of nearly 61%. That number will not be able to continue if Guerrero wants his strength to continue. His expected numbers suggest that some improvement may be ahead, but for now, Guerrero is the most disappointing healthy hitter in fantasy baseball.
Ian Happ (OF), Chicago Cubs
Ian Happ’s production has dropped significantly over the past two weeks because he hasn’t been making enough quality connections. In his last 15 games, Happ is hitting just .164 (9-for-55) with a .225 on-base percentage despite hitting three home runs. More concerning is that he has struck out 20 times in those 55 at-bats, a 36.4% strikeout rate, well above his already inflated season mark (31.6%).
His inability to consistently put the ball in play prevented him from using his above-average power, and many of his batted balls landed on pitches when he was forced to defend the strike zone rather than attack it. If more than one-third of your plate appearances end in strikes, it’s hard to let elite batted-ball metrics work for you. The Cubs have been an incredibly inconsistent offense this year, and Happ shares the other side of that.
