On the latest Razzball Fantasy Baseball podcast, they talk bad about the corner of the field. They are right, and you should listen, but every time there is an odd situation there is an opportunity, especially to buy low or high. I’m enjoying the chaos and I hope you are too. Here are a few players you should look to run and face in the middle of the weak discussions.
Curtis Mead
It’s Mead week here at Razzball, and I’m not talking about mead wine coming back from around the world. We are talking about a worthy Washington National with many positions. What the guy has improved is his plate technique. The rate of travel increased to 14% annually; this is more than his last two combined (6% last year and 4% the year before). This is a logical change that stabilizes quickly.
The plate approach led to a .400 OBP last month. Considering that prospects are taking longer to adjust to the MLB ring than we’re used to, and that Mead is playing every day, this is a guy you want to get now. It’s not just a hot month, it’s a real change that leads to improvement across the board. Therefore, speculation underestimates what he can do.
Look for double-digit hits and a BA above league average. With WRC+ (for the three of you who play in a league with that category), for the season, he is 142. That’s good and will solidify his playing time. If you look at his improved fly ball rate, that makes it even more powerful. Even better, his strikeout rate has increased from 34% to 49% this year, and to top off this baseball sundae, he’s pulling it into the air!
Mead has a low-ish BABIP of .245, resulting in a slightly below average BA of .242. I look for that to improve (his 17% K rate supports this as well). He has the pedigree, he has the opportunity, and he only owns 28% of Yahoo. Excuse me, I’ll go check if you’re there (goodbye, Austin Riley!)
Jonathan Aranda
I live in the eastern part of North Carolina, within driving distance of two minor league baseball teams. I force my family to go to one game a year, usually the Durham Bulls (AAA for the Rays). One time, we went to dollar hot dog night; we ate 20 as a group of 4. One time, my daughter found the ball. This year, we actually own the whole game. My son has severe autism, and it’s a lot of work, but everyone was happy this time. Great primo seats too:
To make a long story short, I watched Aranda in Durham in 2023, when he hit .339. 2024 was full of injuries, and 2025 was a breakout until, again, injuries. After typing this, I should probably be more concerned about his health, huh. He’s a guy I’ve followed ever since and focused on, fun! (Same feeling as Jett Williams in milwaukee, Kevin Alcantara in Chicago, too Colson Montgomery)
This season, he is hitting .290 overall after hitting .524 over his last seven days as of this writing. His last 30 are still impressive: .374/.464/.500. If you combine his current stats with his Razzball projections, he’ll finish with a .275 batting average, 23 HR, 79 R, and 83 RBI. I think that’s down, computer! He hit over .300 last year, and right there this year. He always hits when he’s healthy, and it’s time to stop expecting a slump and trust what Aranda does. In hard-hitting metrics, he ranks in the top 20 across all metrics; fully support metrics. You should, too.
Aranda. Beating machine. Definitely think you will continue this.
Colson Montgomery
Another young man I watched as a guest in Durham, Montgomery lights up Chicago on the radio and social media. It seems like there is a battle of who is better, him or her Dansby Swanson. All I’m saying is stop being stupid. Montgomery, who plays SS but is 3B eligible this year, is what Swanson would be in the best position for. He’s averaging 32 HR, 72 R, and 87 RBI using my possibly flawed combination of current stats and future projections. There is just one thing.
If you’ve followed my stuff here for the past four years, you’ll know that I don’t like guys mooning over high K rates. Montgomery has great bat speed, but his strikeout rate is over 30%, a huge red flag. In drafts, I usually make that the end of the run; just over 30 has a very high risk of lowering your batting average. And you know, Colson’s projection is a .220 average. And when that goes down, so do the maths the other way around. That K ratio leaves no margin for error, and you have to consider that a .220 projection could lead to .200 very quickly.
I can find a Sox fan (if you can, there’s really no reason to be one) and face him now at his peak.
Time to Quit
Spencer Torkelson, when I’m 26, there probably won’t be much improvement or breakouts. This year, he’s trying the senior patient walk method. The rate of walking is exactly the same as it was, but the patient’s manner is more patient; his strike rate is 32.6! Over 30, I’m usually out.
In particular, I’m out if the BABIP is .289 with a batting average of .210. You guys are doing great. If you’re still waiting for the legendary breakout, it doesn’t look like it’s coming anytime soon. You would hope to see the sputum decrease; it went from 24% to 29%. He doesn’t run the ball well, so even though his rushing rate is improving, he doesn’t hit the ball well when he swings.
I’m out, finally.
