On October 26, 2001, Tyler Chase the Dollar was born. “Tyler is so cute!” means family, friends, and loved ones. As baby Tyler transforms from a blob to a real person, the words become, “Tyler! Get down there,” or “Tyler, turn off the PlayStation and eat!” Tyler this. Tyler that. Then Tyler started playing Little League and eventually found calling as his calling. He was good, but Jimmy Schronik would always barrel into him, look him straight in the eye, smile, and then run around the bases like a Labrador chasing butterflies, seeing the ball bounce between gopher-sized holes and put it back over the outside fence. Enough was enough, and Tyler decided he was going to change things. The next time the two met on the court, this time it was Tyler who looked Jimmy straight in the eye, smiled, and said, “Chase this,” just before throwing a devastating slide that made Jimmy pirouette like a ballerina for a triple. Tyler looked around at no one and yelled, “Call me Chase from now on!” So it was done.
Last season, Chase Dollander pitched 98 innings in the majors with poor results. The ERA was 6.52 while the FIP was 5.53. The strikeout rate was just 18.6% despite averaging 98 mph on the fastball, and the walk rate was 11.1%, leading to a modest 7.5% K-BB. He also gave up 18 home runs.
As young Tyler turns into Chase, Dollander has made a similar transition from last season to this season. Through 32 innings, the ERA is 2.25 while the FIP is 3.03. He averaged 99.1 mph on the fastball with a 30% strikeout rate, a 6.9% walk rate, and only three home runs.
What has changed, and is it sustainable? Let’s dig in.
Dollander is 24 years old, 6-foot-2, 219 pounds, and throws from the right side. He was selected by the Colorado Rockies with the ninth overall pick in the 2023 draft.
Throughout his minor league career, Dollander has done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard while his strikeout rate has often been in the high 20 to 30 percent range. Control was always an issue, however, with a walk rate of 9% or more.
Last season in MLB, the average exit velocity was 88.7 mph with a launch angle of 12.5 degrees and a barrel rate of 11.5%. The GB/FB was 1.11 and the rushing rate was only 23.4%.
This season, the average exit velocity is 91.9 mph with a launch angle of 11.8 degrees, but the barrel rate is 8.9%. GB/FB increased to 1.46 while the rushing rate increased to 30.9%.
The main reason for the change seems to be the different pitch mix. Last season, Chase Dollander threw the fastball 48.8% of the time. He only throws the pitch 37.8% of the time. He has completely abandoned the cutter and replaced it with a slider, which he used 19.8% of the time after only using it 0.2% last season. Sinker usage went from 9.8% to 21.7%, and replacement went from 7.8% to 12.5%. After throwing a 21.3% curveball last season, Dollander is only throwing 8.1% this season.
The fastball had a 19.9% whiff rate last season. It is now up 30% this season. The slider is at 32.4%, the changeup is 31.3%, and the curveball is 60%.
Dollander has always had things. With a different sequence and compatibility, the total package confused the batteries. And with a 99 mph fastball, there’s no time to think about the puzzle.
Now, Dollander has been a bit more fortunate with a .263 BABIP and 87.7%. Additionally, he has been more effective against righties than lefties, as his FIP is 2.13 vs. 4.54 while K-BB% is 34.7% vs. 7.3%.
That being said, Chase Dollander has been more active at AT Coors Field than on the road. It’s only been two starts, but the FIP is 1.38 at home and the K-BB% is 31%. Those two starts were against the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies.
Ancestry? Check it out. Things? Check Check. A Coors winner? It remains to be seen as we have to wait and see how he does when the ball starts flying, but at least he has shown the ability to do more than succeed so far. Dollander is worth getting if available, especially since the hitting ability is ridiculous.
