Change is not always good. I used to be a Bruce Lee-esque 185 pounds. Now? I’m a 250-pound, all-you-can-eat Korean BBQ grade of meat. But when you are in a desperate situation, change is important, even if it does not produce the best result. At least you give the universe a chance to work its magic, and life often finds a way. Dustin May he has had a career in Greek mythology. The flaming red hair resembled the ball on fire, but the batsmen were rarely distracted and put the bat on the ball more often than not. Furthermore, the injury gods were unkind, limiting him to 348.2 innings over eight MLB seasons, but May has changed. Do we dare to believe?
Dustin May is 28 years old, 6-foot-6, 180 pounds, and throws from the right side. May was selected by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the third round of the 2016 MLB draft.
Throughout his minor league career, May has shown good control and hasn’t allowed too many long balls. The strikeout rate was 7-8 K/9 despite throwing a high-90s fastball.
May made his major league debut in the 2019 season. The minor league career record was passed, as K/9 was 8.31, BB/9 was 1.3, and HR/9 was 0.52. He averaged 95.8 mph on the fastball and posted a 2.9 FIP over 34.2 innings.
The following season, Dustin May got the Opening Day start for Clayton Kershaw who had a back injury. He pitched 56 innings, the numbers slipped: 7.07 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, and 1.45 HR/9. The 4.62 FIP was much higher than the 2.57 ERA. This was a Covid-shortened season with no fans in the stands, so the change in production is understandable. May averaged 99 mph on the fastball, though.
Then the gods got bored and went to work.
Dustin May underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021. He pitched only 30 innings in 2022 due to a back injury. 2023 was filled with elbow surgery and a UCL sprain procedure. The 2024 season was cut short due to a sore throat. Even Homer shakes his head as he laments that his Odyssey was nothing compared to this.
May finally pitched more than 60 innings in a season during the 2025 campaign – 132.1 innings with both the Dodgers and the Boston Red Sox. IK/9 was 8.37, BB/9 was 3.81, and HR/9 was 1.43. A 4.88 FIP supported a 4.96 ERA while the fastball averaged 95.5 mph.
He then signed a one-year, $12.5 million contract with St. Louis Cardinals this season.
In 24.2 innings, May is posting 7.3 K/9, 1.82 BB/9, and 1.09 HR/9. The fastball is back, averaging 97.3 mph while the 3.95 FIP is significantly lower than the 5.84 ERA, as the BABIP is .395 higher.
At the beginning of the season, May was honored with six earned runs in four innings. The next start was worse, allowing seven earned runs in 3.1 innings. May was bad, but he was also unlucky as the BABIP was over .500 in both contests. The FIP was just 2.39 against a 13.5 ERA in the opener.
In his three starts since then, Dustin May has gone 5.1, six innings, and six while allowing one earned run in each contest.
Tampa Bay and Detroit were the first two matchups, and the Rays and Tigers are 14th and 15th in wRC+ and 13th and 14th in wOBA, respectable offenses but not world beaters. I think May’s performance had a lot to do with stepping up and being comfortable with the new vocal mix.
Throughout his MLB career, May was a sinkerball pitcher, using the pitch 50% of the time in his first two seasons in the majors. He only threw the fastball 6% of the time. Over the years, sinker usage has dropped to 30% while fastball usage has increased to 20%.
This season, sinker usage is just 18.9%, while May uses the fastball 29.3% of the time. He started using a slider two seasons ago, and is throwing the pitch 19.4% of the time. The change occurred at 8.2%, compared to the job rate of 2.9%.
Last season, Dustin May threw a 39.3% sweeper, a 33.5% sinker, and a 16.6% fastball. This season, the pitch distribution is fastball 29.3%, sweeper 19.4%, sinker 18.9%, cutter 16.1%, changeup 8.2%, and curveball 8.2%. Red-headed Yu Darvish!
Despite the high velocity, the fastball still has a whiff rate of 15%, so that makes me sad. That said, he is able to keep the hitters off balance with a different pitch mix now.
Is it as bad as the first two? Now. Is it as good as the last three started? Not. Is it ready to think? Hells in no. He doesn’t miss enough at-bats, but he’s certainly good at coordinating.
