Trade Deadline Outlook: San Diego Padres

The Padres could have a wide range of possible outcomes at the deadline. They have baseball’s most unpredictable sports leader. They are expected to officially acquire a new identity a few weeks after August 3, which will likely increase their earning power. It’s a heavy list with a few high-impact trade chips, a bunch of inflated contracts, and a clear need for a controlled startup. The only shocking result would be if they do nothing at all.

San Diego started strong despite a lackluster offense and a lack of depth in an injury-riddled rotation. They rode an excellent bullpen to a 19-11 start at the end of April. A four-game winning streak in mid-May pushed them a season-high 11 games over .500 at 29-18, moving them slightly ahead of the Dodgers in the NL West.

They hit the ground running from there. Only the A’s have a worse record than San Diego’s 22-35 mark since May 19. They have dropped five of eight since the All-Star Break. While the Padres’ all-star hitters are hot after an impressive start, San Diego’s hitting has now completely crumbled. Not only has the rotation been overstretched — which was inevitable given the personnel — but a handful of injuries and an overworked middle-of-the-pack relief group have limited the effectiveness of the bullpen.

The Padres are a tough team to beat if they hold a lead in the ninth inning. They just can’t get there consistently enough. The team’s hopes are long gone and they are four games back of the Wild Card picture. That’s not an insurmountable gap, but they have five teams to pitch with half of the big league pitching staff.

It can’t happen inside even if they get reinforcements from the ground damage. They will need to acquire starting pitching, which may require trading down the MLB roster. The Padres have one top prospect, a Double-A catcher Ethan Salas. No one else from their system ranks among the best minor league talents by Baseball America, FanGraphs or The Athletic. There is very little depth of field. BA ranked San Diego’s program as the weakest in the majors just before this month’s draft.

The Padres need to trade or go through a minor buy/sell line involving MLB roster trades to get help elsewhere. In any case, they should have a lot of conversations with trading chips for a few impact.

Record: 51-53 (9.2% playoff odds, via FanGraphs)

(For other entries in this series, see this post.)

Sell ​​Mode

Potential Free Agents: Adrian Morejon, Michael King (Exit), France, Jason Adam, Walker Buehler, Yuki Matsui (Exit), Wandy Peralta (Exit), Miguel Andujar, Luis Rengifo, Griffin Canning, German Marquez, Lucas Giolito, Kyle Hart (club option), Ramon Laureano

Note: If Nick Pivetta doesn’t return to the injured list on Aug. 22, the remaining two years and $32MM on his contract — both of which are player options — will convert to $14MM for the club.

Regulated Exchanges: Mason Miller, Jeremiah Estrada, Bradley Rodriguez, Gavin Sheets, Luis Campusano

We focused a lot of our attention throughout the deadline series on upcoming free agents. Those players are the best if the team is out of contention. We’ll make an exception in the case of the Padres, as their deadline is heavily dependent on them acquiring Mason Miller.

San Diego has three and a half seasons of arbitration control over baseball’s closest. They are one year removed from surrender Leo De Vries (one of the five best prospects in the sport) to find him. Miller is on pace for the greatest single-season shutout in history, going 26-26 in save opportunities with a 0.84 ERA while striking out nearly half of his opponents. The Padres would only move him for a monster return, almost certainly the biggest package of prospects any other player will receive this offseason. He is their best chance to land a controllable starter in the rotation with reliable arms locked up in the 2027 staff.