Heading into the All-Star Break last week, instead of our usual search for deep league gems (or at least desperate relief), we took a look at some shocking first-half surprises. Coming off the break this week and before we get back to our regular deep-league schedule, I thought we’d do the same for pitchers. So, as I continue to regroup and prepare for the second half (under), here you have it: some thoughts on the first half pitching, also based on ratings from the Razzball player rater so far this season.
The top two players in the player rater are two young stars representing each league, Jacob Misiorowski again Cam Schlittler. I believe I’m editing each of these guys at the same time, so I’m obsessed with writing each one of them, but I admit to not collecting as many shares as I can get my hands on. Which could be a lot of shares, as Miz’s NFBC ADP was 128, while Schlittler’s was 133. It is difficult to imagine that any of them produce the numbers of the first half in the second half, even if we multiply. In part because it’s unlikely that either pitcher will continue to be that good, and also because one would think that both would be at some sort of workload limits (and we may have already seen this with Miz after being scratched from the start going into the break). Either way, congratulations if either or both of these guys are leading your team, hopefully to victory.
Zack Wheeler ranked third. This is good for me in the short term, as I put him in a few leagues. I decided to gamble on his life and get a chance on him for both a league or two drafts at the beginning of the season, and one or two more if his price goes up a bit, after the health reports are generally good in spring training. (Wheeler’s overall NFBC ADP this year was 134, and it’s interesting to see how close the top three guys are. Not sure what that means yet, if anything, but it’s still interesting, IMO). Still, the question is whether Wheeler’s success and overall value this year is good for me in the long term. I’ve really stopped drafting injured pitchers even at a huge discount over the past few seasons, and I think for the most part it’s been a positive development in my game. But that being said, I feel like I was dealing with as many pitcher injuries as ever back then. So, if I’m dealing with all those injuries to “healthy/non-dangerous” guys, should I lean on guys who are injured but hopefully fixed, to try and get more value? Or will Wheeler’s success ruin next year’s teams if I go in with this strategy and end up with a roster full of red crosses all season? Or will there be a bad lockout that lasts so long that we all forget to play fantasy baseball? Time will tell.
Chase Burns be #6. I absolutely swatted him when I saw his price heading into the season, where he rose to the #31 overall pick in one of my NFBC leagues. I thought the control issues would keep him at this price range, so good job if you did a better job evaluating him than I did and bought this year. Special shout out to whoever found him in his “lowest pick” in the NFBC, which was #261. Now that’s what I call a bargain, my friends. (Note: as I open this post, I read that the Reds just signed Burns to a long-term deal. Congrats to young Chase, and maybe the Reds brass were busy scouting a Razzball player just as I was going through the break!)
Foster Griffinhe of the NFBC overall ADP of 478 and the top pick of 733, is #8 in the pitcher rating. Parker Messick (NFBC ADP 309) is #16. I’ve criticized both of these guys and I don’t think either of them have ever been high in my draft lineup even in my 50 drafts and catch leagues, or my “watch list” in free agent leagues. I’m going to spend some time this offseason trying to figure out why not. I managed to catch #18 Justin Wrobleski (NFBC ADP 470) in several leagues, therefore. And I will shout again Max Meyer (NFBC ADP 357, #13 in pitcher player rater) here. I got a feeling for him late and went shopping at Meyer’s near the end of draft season, thank you. Looking into next year and beyond, I think there will be a lot of analysis and discussion about all four of these guys in the second half and throughout the offseason, when it comes to whether or not each of them is the “real deal”.
Since it’s an often ugly fact of playing a 5×5 league and one of the categories that drives player rating, let’s talk for a moment about winning. There is a common theme among pitchers starting at the top of the ranks; that is, they are all rich in Ws. All of the top eight starters have won at least nine, a reminder of how important they are in mainstream formats, like it or not. The ninth best starter, and #10 overall in the pitcher rater, is another named Shohei Ohtanieight wins going into the break. While I don’t know exactly how much another win or two would have raised his level, I do know that it would have made a huge difference even in this exposed spirit. Therefore, leagues will differ, and the importance of a win for your particular team in your particular league as it relates to standings will vary. But we can’t deny that they help fuel the 5×5’s value, in a vacuum anyway. Whether we ignore that fact and just hope for luck with the winning streak — or fully engage in the often soul-crushing effort of trying to predict a pitcher’s wins — is another discussion entirely.
We closed the hitters’ post with some rants about catchers, and now we’ll continue the pitchers’ post with some discussion about closers. In some ways, closers are like anglers. Both positions can be very different when it comes to fantasy levels and perceived value. Also, in both cases the depth of your league can make a huge difference. Regardless of the size of your league, I think the general consensus is that 2026 has been the worst year for closer stability, so let’s take a quick look at the numbers:
There are six closers ranked in the top 25 when it comes to overall pitcher ratings in player rating: #4 Mason Miller#11 Louis Varland#12 Kade Smith#19 Jacob Latz#22 Bryan Bakerand #25 John Duran. So this is an interesting list, I think, with top picks Miller, Smith, and Duran mixed in with a few waiver wire caps. (I remember being shocked at how quick Smith was to my first few NFBC shows, but the early depositors are sitting pretty in the savings department for now). This list really confirms my frustration with closers this year. I like to consider myself pretty good at getting them on the phone during the season, re-drafting them and catching leagues even if they’re third or fourth on their team’s depth chart, if that, heading into the season. But while I have Varland on several D&H teams, I somehow don’t put Latz or Baker in the same league. I’m very happy with that, and I’ll try to use it to help my thinking in the near future, I think.
Going back to the closer/catcher comparison, there were, in my opinion, a surprising number of each upside in the rankings, and within that group a nearly 50/50 split of expensive draft picks and free agent costs. So, now I’m going to quote myself from last week, but instead of the word “hunter” I put “closer”: “Does this information mean that we should draft a stud closer early, and hope to pick the right one? Or does it suggest that we should wait, and hope to pick the right one? Something I’ll be thinking about more than I care to admit this offseason.”
Okay, that’s it for this week as we get back to some easy MLB action. It was fun to mix things up a bit, as I’m pretty sure this is the last time I’ll talk about and tag Ohtani in my league depth column; ) Hope everyone enjoyed the break, and good luck as we begin the back half of the season!
