Welcome to Ngoba Ubuzile, a series in which I will dive deeper into some of the players that readers ask about in my weekly interviews. These are often guys who were absent or mentioned briefly in our last round of rosters, or players whose production doesn’t match their reputation or scouting reports. Also, Jonah Tong. I hope this exercise allows me to tap a sign every week instead of writing the same sentence or two; we will see how it goes. First: Manuel Pena.
Pena is a 22-year-old starter in the Diamondbacks’ system. We’ve written about him before — Eric and I ranked him 15th in Arizona’s 2022 draft as a power hitter — but he quickly fell out of the big leagues and was completely absent during our last three rounds. This year, Pena has started games at first, third, second, and left field, and while he has a little shortstop experience on his resume, he’s primarily a four-rounder at this point. However, no one asks about the glove. Pena has attracted attention for one reason: Suddenly, he is among the minor league home run leaders with 29. This comes after he hit 31 over the past five seasons combined, so fans and readers are understandably looking for an update here.
At the same time, the context is a big part of the story. Twenty-six of Pena’s home runs came during his time with Amarillo — he has homered just three times in 91 games since being promoted to Reno, not a park or league known as a pitcher’s paradise — and 14 of those came in 31 home games. Amarillo has long been one of the most favorable places to hit in all of the minor leagues. It’s hot, dry, and 3,600 feet above sea level, the ball flies in Hodgetown, especially when the wind picks up. And it often does: By some measures, Amarillo is the windiest city in the country. Last year, Hodgetown was the best Double-A offensive park by several orders of magnitude according to American baseballthe best annual minor league park factor study, and was second in all of minor league baseball in homers per game at 2.98 per contest.
Not all of Pena’s Double-A damage was done at home, but it all came in the Texas League. In both these districts and many others, cases have exploded this year. Homers are up 44% year over year in the Texas League, and while we can’t be entirely sure why that is, many minor league analysts think the change in baseball itself is a big reason why. JJ Cooper of American baseball recently studied the explosion of domestic football and wrote that “the rise in offensive numbers so far in 2026 appears to be the result of some accidental change” in the composition of football, a conclusion that I and a few of my sources share. One team source I spoke to said, holding launch angle and exit velocity equal, balls fly 8-10% more consistently this season in the minors and minors compared to 2025. In contrast, he said, most fly balls that were harmless 330-foot fly outs are now 365-foot dingers. If you were a hitter looking to put up numbers, you couldn’t ask for a better place to do it than Amarillo in 2026.
Still, no matter how favorable the weather, you have to get out there and hit some deep fly balls. Pena has done just that, and by far more than his teammates. Jansel Luis, a preseason Pick to Click candidate, has had all the same advantages and has reached half as many players even with 60 more plate appearances. Demetrio Crisantes has missed time with an injury, but he’s a top five guy in the program and a player we’ve shown will develop a plus hit tool. He has four homers in 32 games at the plate, while Drew Jones has just three all season. Pena’s production is different.
Let’s dig a little deeper into Pena herself. Year by year, his measurable strength increases. While he’s not that strong, he hits the ball hard more often, and if he’s traded a little to get to it, the exchange has paid off so far:
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Manuel Pena
| A year | Swing Rate | Chase Rate | Contact Rating | IZ Contact Rate | Max Gets Out of the Velo | 90th% EV | Hard-Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 53% | 32% | 73% | 83% | 112 | 102.6 | 33.3% |
| 2026 | 55.4% | 36% | 70% | 80.4% | 109.8 | 105.9 | 51.4% |
Aside from hitting the ball hard for several months, however, there is very little else statistically to suggest that Pena has taken a step forward. His fly ball rate, which has hovered around 30% for most of his career, increased to 41% in Amarillo this season but dropped back to his work habits in Reno. He doesn’t pull the ball as often as he used to. His average strikeout rate has dropped into the 80s since his promotion.
Looking at Pena, things don’t look much different. He starts with hands deep, which shortens his load time, but he still hits the same spot, and it’s not like he was always behind last year. His swing is still steep by default, with less sloppiness on pitches higher in the area. In fact, what stands out the most is that he is able to connect with so many people even if his swing is out of place for that long. But that was true before 2026 as well.
Over time, I expect that better pitching will test Pena’s communication skills. He strikes out about 35% of the time on offspeed and spin, and his tendency to chase those pitches away from the plate will limit his ability to get both grounders and consistently make hard contact. Still, this is a young guy who is holding his own at the highest level of the minor leagues. Although he is not a good defender anywhere, he can stand in several different positions, and the combination of flexibility and strength gives him a way to be valuable. If I were making a roster for the D-backs now, I’d respect the production and stick him at the bottom of the main division as an upside guy who gets more shots if his path exceeds expectations. I would rank him as a 35+ on our scale, and his tool marks would look like this:
