Like most teams, the Padres are not firmly in a buyer’s or seller’s position as the August 3 deadline approaches. They are 48-48 and 3.5 games back of a National League playoff spot. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that people in the organization say the team’s performance after the All-Star Break will determine whether they buy or sell. President of baseball operations AJ Preller spoke to reporters recently, including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell, and his comments reflected that phone situation.
“We’re going to go into the program with an open mind to see what’s out there and see what can help our club,” Preller said. “We will go into an open mind about buying players or looking at if we have to look in another direction. All those things are on the table.”
If the club decides to sell, there will be obvious candidates. Adrián Morejón, Jason Adam, Miguel Andujar, Lucas Giolito, Griffin Canning, German Marquez, Walker Buehler, France again Luis Rengifo they are all future free agents. They should all be there, although most of them won’t have much trade value due to injuries or ineffectiveness, except for Morejón.
Deciding to move manageable pieces or not can be a tough call, with Mason Miller was the most interesting option on the list. Preller was asked about the possibility of Miller’s trade and he said that the clubs plan to keep Miller but he also did not clearly say that the proximity is not affected.
“Obviously, Mason is the best in the game,” Preller said. “So you’re always going to have people who are going to be interested in someone who’s the best at what they do and what they do. Ever since we made the deal last year, he’s done as well as you’d want someone to do. We made the deal with the intention of Mason staying for a long time. He’s done an unbelievable job. And our goal is the same as last year.”
The Padres certainly don’t have to consider trading Miller this summer. As Preller said, he is considered by many to be the closest thing to the game right now. He has a 0.91 earned run average, a 48.3% strikeout rate, an 8.7% walk rate and a 47.6% ground ball rate this year. He is under control for three seasons beyond the current campaign.
There are reasons why the Friars might think about it, though. Due to a lot of aggressive trading in recent years, the farm system is in bad shape. Last week, Baseball America ranked the Padres’ farm as the worst in the majors. Miller would be worth a lot right now, given his remaining club control and affordability. He’ll be the club’s best route to rebuilding the farm system, though they could target big league-ready players as well.
They certainly wouldn’t get a headliner like they gave up on Miller, as they sent him Leo De Vries to Athletics in that exchange. De Vries was, and still is, considered by some to be one of the top five prospects in the league. Those hopes rarely waver and the fact that the Padres pulled the trigger points to their unique aggressiveness. If they were to consider a second trade, they would probably have to accept that they would not get such a base but they could still pick up some great talent, possibly spread among many players.
A trade would open a big hole in a big league roster but that could happen anyway. Major elbow surgery has become commonplace in the modern game, especially for those with great speed. Miller is averaging 101.3 miles per hour on his fastball this year, leading the league among those with at least 30 innings pitched. He had already torn his ulnar collateral ligament in 2023, although he recovered from that injury without surgery.
It would be a bold move to trade Miller just one year after acquiring him but the Padres have made similar moves in the past, a very notable trade. Juan Soto to the Yankees a year and a half after acquiring him from the Nationals. The deal saw the Padres get Soto once Josh Bell with a five-player package, titled James Wood, CJ Abrams again MacKenzie Gore. When they turned around and sent Soto to the Bronx, a big part of the comeback was Michael Kingalthough they also found hope Drew Thorpe and used him as a news manager to find out Dylan Cease from the White Sox.
Preller has never been shy about making art to achieve team goals. Even if they do trade at the deadline, they are still going to be a winning team in the near term and they have a lot of money committed to young guys. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill again Jake Cronenworth. Ideally, a second Miller trade would allow them to bring back more pieces to help the club through 2027 and beyond. The bullpen will be weak but they have other arms that can step up in Miller’s absence.
One thing that is unclear about the Padres is what kind of lead parameters they will be working with. The club’s payroll increases through 2023, according to Cot’s baseball contracts, but has been reduced since late owner Peter Seidler died in November of that year. The tightening of the ropes appears to be the reason why the club has been more willing to trade the farm system in recent years. The Seidler family reportedly reached an agreement to sell the club to private billionaire José E. Feliciano and his wife Kwanza Jones earlier this year, but the sale is not yet legal.
As part of the All Star celebrations this week, commissioner Rob Manfred spoke to the media and said the deal will go through, according to Acee. However, Manfred declined to give a timeline and Acee says the deal may not get the official rubber stamp until August.
Feliciano and Jones have deep pockets and it has been speculated by some in the industry that they could spend big once they take control of the club. But if the transfer won’t be completed until after the deadline, it’s unclear how that will affect Preller and what he can do while the trade is still open. Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that Feliciano and Jones have been in contact with the front office and that the club may have the flexibility to add to the roster after their deadline.
Photo courtesy of Denis Poroy, Imagn Images
