The Royals have been one of the most disappointing teams in MLB. They are tied with the Angels as the two worst teams in the American League, the only AL clubs completely buried in the playoff picture.
That theoretically positions them as deadline sellers. However, as explored on the MLBTR podcast this week, Kansas City doesn’t have many obvious trade candidates. Most of their free agents are injured or inactive. It is unlikely that they will start another full rebuild Bobby Witt Jr. in his beginning. That leaves them largely to decide whether to work with the veteran starters they signed this offseason.
Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that the Royals are reluctant to move either Michael Wacha or Seth Lugo. They write that while Kansas City will listen to offers, the Royals have told other teams they won’t budge from the highest asking price. In that case, neither player is likely to move, as their contracts do not have a large amount of money left.
Wacha is sporting a salary of $18MM. He’s signed for $14MM next year (with another $4MM available in performance bonuses) and his deal contains a club option or a $1MM buyout for the ’28 season. Lugo was a trade prospect last summer, but the Royals took him off the market by signing him to a two-year extension less than a week before the deadline. He’s making $20MM this year and next; there is a club/sale option starting at $17MM or a $3MM buyout in ’28.
Rosenthal and Sammon reported that Lugo’s extension came with a full no-trade clause. They note that Wacha’s deal has little no-trade protection though not complete NTC. Kansas City has controlled both pitchers for two and a half years.
Wacha should have the higher trading volume of the two. It’s a little cheaper and has a better season. Although the Mets scored six runs on him this afternoon, he owns a 3.77 ERA over 119 1/3 innings. Wacha trailed less than 20% of competitors compared to a 7% walk rate.
In fact, it is the same season that Wacha has had for five years running. He doesn’t miss a ton of at-bats but attacks the strike zone with a six-bowl mix. He gets a decent number of weak fly balls and has kept his ERA under 4.00 each year through 2021. That profile plays better in Kansas City’s open Kauffmann Stadium than on the road, but Wacha will slot into the third or fourth position in most teams’ rotations. He also leads the American League in innings pitched.
Lugo has shown a high ceiling, finishing as the Cy Young runner-up the past few seasons. He hasn’t been great over the past two years, compiling a 4.32 ERA and a 19.7% strikeout percentage over his 44 starts. It is a profile that targets the same command as a whole. Wacha bowls more and has a slightly higher strike rate. Lugo has also had an incredible home/road split and has struggled of late, allowing just six earned runs in nine innings over his last 12 innings.
Wacha turned 35 last week. Lugo is a year and a half older and turns 37 in November. The Orioles signed Chris Bassitt for $18.5MM in his age-37 season. Merrill Kelly he signed a two-year, $40MM contract with the Diamondbacks at the same time. Lugo’s contract is at the same level and he has a worse year than Kelly or Bassitt did in 2025. Wacha’s minimum contract probably comes in at a few million dollars less than what he would have made had he been a free agent. That suggests there is some trade value, but the expected return wouldn’t be great if another team took the entire contract.
Even in what could be a hungry trade market, the Royals shouldn’t expect a significant package of young talent from any starter. Establishing a top ask is about doubting a controlled pitch trade at all. Their 2027 rotation picture worries even Lugo and Wacha in the fold.
Cole Ragans he will miss most of the first half after undergoing UCL surgery. Chris Bubic is an upcoming free agent and hasn’t stayed healthy the past few years. Noah Cameron he hasn’t maintained his rookie form and looks like a fourth/fifth starter. The same is true Stephen Kolek again Luinder Avilait is the latter who can better enter into freedom. Minor league depth arms Ryan Bergert again Ben Kudrna will come off season-ending surgery. Their best prospects for stopping (eg Kendry Chourio, David Shields, Justin Lamkin) spent most or all of this season in A ball.
If Kansas City trades Wacha or Lugo for an impressive return, they’ll likely need to spend the same amount to get some big or bad arms in a weak free agent class. That probably sets up a completely silent deadline. The Royals have seven free agents: Bubic, Carlos Estévez, Jonathan India, Matt Strahm, Lane Thomas, Star Marte again John Schreiber.
Estévez and India are injured and have no trade value. Bubic might be a decent trade chip but he’s off again after another shoulder fracture. It’s doubtful he’ll return before the Aug. 3 deadline, though a contender could still hold off on getting a lottery ticket while injured. Strahm has an ERA over 5.00 and has lost 10 percent of his strikeout rate. Thomas and Marte are the short wingers of the platoon. Schreiber has a respectable ERA (3.53) but an abysmal 18.2% strikeout percentage across 35 2/3 innings.
