The 2026 Cardinals have committed to a young organization in an offseason defined by trades for veteran players. They cut salary dramatically and mostly stayed out of free agency, spending a total of $18MM on four one-year contracts.
More than two-thirds of that money goes to him Dustin Maythe Cardinals acquired him in a $12.5MM deal. He makes $12MM in salary and will collect a $500K buyout when his $20MM co-option is declined at the end of the season. The comeback pitch worked out pretty well, as May took a 4.30 ERA with base numbers into tonight’s start at Truist Park.
May struggled in the first month of the season but has been the team’s best starter since then. He has a 3.74 ERA while striking out 26% of opponents in his nine starts. A nine-hit, one-shutout performance against a poor San Diego offense was a highlight, but he pitched well enough in all but three games. May has nine quality starts in 15 games, one-half of last year’s total of 23 outings.
Derrick Goold of St. Louis Post-Dispatch spoke with May on Tuesday about some of his offseason adjustments. The righty has raised the angle of his arm back to where it was earlier in his career, as it had sunk on the heels of multiple injuries. He mixes in some four-seam fastballs and cutters after relying heavily on his sinker/sweeper pairing last year. It didn’t suddenly turn May into an ace — he has a league-leading 22.5% batting average and gives up a lot of contact — but he’s playing like someone who could start the third or fourth game of a playoff series.
Will that opportunity come with the Cardinals? St. Louis hoped when they signed May that he would play well enough to be a trade deadline chip in a year when they focused more on developing young players. They have played better than expected and hold a 44-39 record over half the schedule. Milwaukee appears to be out of the NL Central again, but a Wild Card berth is a distinct possibility. The Cards currently hold the last major league playoff spot with a percentage advantage over the Marlins.
President of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said last fall that the organization will prioritize the future if they need to “choose between short-term gratification and our ultimate goal of continuing to compete.” They stuck to that message this summer without giving up hope of competition.
“Obviously, I’ve been here in the fall and I’ve said it many times since then, that we have very good intentions,” Bloom said last week (link to Brenden Schaeffer of MLB.com). “We want to make sure we have a good plan to get there and not get distracted by the things that need to happen to reach those goals.”
Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. He underestimated the possibility of making a big splash on the commercial front. “When the trade deadline comes around, teams have a habit of doing that [think] ‘Well, if I get one guy, I’ll give them two (prospects), and then I can make the playoffs.’ That’s not our model,” DeWitt said last week.
That is not the message of the group waiting to be in the group Tarik Skubal bidding, but it does not mean that they will sell. They can pause or make small additions (eg medium leverage) without sacrificing a lot of prospect money. Goold writes that the Cardinals are still expected to pitch in May, but that’s standard operating procedure for any bubble team. Their motivation to move him, or lack thereof, will obviously depend on their place in the table a month from now and what kind of offers are on the table.
MLBTR’s Steve Adams checked the number of prospects the Cardinals could expect in May from the Trade Rumors Front Office subscriber mailbag last week. If they don’t trade him, they’ll need to weigh whether they’re interested in a multi-year extension and/or release a qualifying offer of around $23.1MM.
There is a chance May accepts a QO and closes in nearly double his salary in his age-29 season, though that will depend on how he finishes the season. St. Louis doesn’t have much on the books for 2027, but ownership has scaled back spending since their local broadcast deal fell through. MLBTR contributor Ethan Hullihen estimates the Cardinals’ 2026 payroll at around $104MM, which puts them in the same range as the Twins and Pirates. If that’s going to remain their spending range, the front office may not want to risk tying up more than 20% of the salary cap in May’s qualifying offer.
The Cardinals have been able to keep their starters incredibly healthy over the past two seasons. They went through the 2025 season with six starters. It’s been a five-man team basically all year. Hunter Dobbins It started in two places. Other than that it was their usual May rotation, Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante, Michael McGreevy again Kyle Leahy.
May had a back spasm which led to him missing his last chance. The postponement meant they could stay on their five-man schedule. It’s a mid-round, but they could trade Dobbins if they trade up in May and everyone stays healthy. Dobbins is a ground ball specialist with a 4.02 ERA in 78 1/3 innings of work. It’s a similar profile to other St. Louis, who don’t miss bats at the moment who are playing well in front of the tandem in the middle of the game Masyn Winn again JJ Wetherholt.
Perhaps next month will make this decision easier for the front office. It’s a tough call if they’re still in the final playoff spot or a game or two off the pace. If their spot in the standings doesn’t change much between now and August 3, how should the Cardinals look at this?
What should the Cardinals and Dustin May do?
Photo courtesy of William Purnell, Imagn Images
