When fans woke up on the morning of May 1st, the Cincinnati Reds led the NL Central with a 20-11 record and were coming off their fifth straight win. Since then, the Reds have become the second-worst team in baseball with a 19-34 record, and those same fans woke up on the first morning of July and Cincinnati was in last place with three games to play. There is good news, however, as the team’s ace, Hunter Greene, will finally make his 2026 MLB debut in Saturday’s holiday game against the Baltimore Orioles. Greene’s return couldn’t come sooner, but is it a case of too little, too late for the Reeling Reds?
There were high expectations for Greene coming into the 2026 season. The second overall pick in the 2017 draft out of Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks, California, Greene was a long time coming. At that time, he was already featured on the cover of Sports Illustratedin the case of Lee Jenkins, calling him “you need a baseball star.” His career was nearly derailed by two missed seasons in 2019 and 2020 due to Tommy John surgery, with help from COVID keeping him from returning in 2020. Greene’s stuff remained unchanged after a short break, and he finally reached the majors in 2022. The 2024 season was his real coming out party. He posted a 2.75 ERA and 3.47 FIP in 150 1/3 innings, good enough to rank 10th in the NL with 3.7 WAR. Greene hit nine walks in 2025, and might have gotten Cy Young votes if it weren’t for two stints on the injured list with a hip injury.
While last year was marred by injuries, it wasn’t an arm ailment, and the Reds were hoping to get a full, healthy year out of Greene this time around. They needed it, too. Cincinnati was near the bottom of the league in team wRC+ in 2024 and 2025, and the team hasn’t had a wRC+ of 100 or better since 2010. With the offense expected to be terrible, the Reds are likely to get more out of their pitching staff in order to have a proper playoff run this year. Naturally, that result will likely require their best pitcher. But after one appearance in the spring, Greene had surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. Now, after spending three months of the season on the shelf, Greene is back.
The offense has struggled, and without Greene, the shooting has not been able to carry the load. Reds starters ranked 17th in ERA, 27th in FIP, and 23rd in WAR. And that’s because Chase Burns is having a breakout season that should land him on the NL All-Star team if eligibility has anything to do with it. Expected to be the team’s strength, the pitching staff has been weak behind Burns and Andrew Abbott, with none of the starters threatening. The annual slide in Nick Lodolo’s strikeout rate has continued, and he has both an ERA and FIP in the north of the top five along with two quality first base totals. Brady Singer’s numbers are terrible, and he’s always a one-pitch with a sinker that doesn’t get grounders and a slider that doesn’t get hit. Rhett Lowder has been pressed, and as for the other cameos (Brandon Williamson, Chris Paddack, Chase Petty), this is a family website.
As shown above, ZiPS projections are not optimistic for the offense based on what the Reds have in house. At 13 1/2 games back in the NL Central standings and four teams up for grabs, winning the division likely requires a miracle that only divine intervention can provide. But the Reds, who are six games out of the last wild card spot, are still holding on to a strong bid to make the playoffs. Given the month of July, ZiPS sees the Reds as the most likely team to enter “dead in the water,” which I loosely define as a 1% chance of making the postseason. Currently, they are hanging at 4%. That’s about the odds of a 25-homer hitter ripping a round-tripper in any given plate appearance; It’s possible, but never panic.
ZiPS NL Central Median Projected Stands, 7/1
| The team | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | play% | WS Win% | 80 of | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Milwaukee Brewers | 93 | 69 | – | .574 | 73.4% | 22.4% | 95.7% | 10.8% | 98.5 | 89.3 |
| Chicago Cubs | 89 | 73 | 4 | .549 | 23.0% | 55.1% | 78.1% | 5.0% | 93.1 | 84.2 |
| Louis Cardinals | 81 | 81 | 12 | .500 | 2.2% | 23.2% | 25.4% | 0.9% | 85.8 | 76.9 |
| The Pittsburgh Pirates | 80 | 82 | 13 | .494 | 1.3% | 16.6% | 17.9% | 0.7% | 84.5 | 75.6 |
| The Cincinnati Reds | 76 | 86 | 17 | .469 | 0.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 0.2% | 80.1 | 71.5 |
The next 14 games or so, until July 20, would be a postponement. To illustrate, I asked ZiPS to give Cincinnati a playoff chance after July 20th based on how the team does in those next 14 games, against the Brewers, Phillies, Cubs, Orioles, and Rockies. Showing real signs of life against serious NL contenders (not the Rockies) could put the Reds right at the point where a trade deadline acquisition at the plate could make sense.
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ZiPS Playoff Odds for Reds Based on Next 14 Games
| 14-Game Record | Playoff Probability |
|---|---|
| 0-14 | 0.0% |
| 1-13 | 0.1% |
| 2-12 | 0.1% |
| 3-11 | 0.3% |
| 4-10 | 0.6% |
| 5-9 | 1.1% |
| 6-8 | 1.9% |
| 7-7 | 3.1% |
| 8-6 | 4.8% |
| 9-5 | 7.2% |
| 10-4 | 10.4% |
| 11-3 | 14.3% |
| 12-2 | 19.3% |
| 13-1 | 25.1% |
| 14-0 | 32.0% |
Going 14-0 or 13-1 is possible, but it’s safe to say, highly unlikely. This chart paints a picture of a team about to expire. Winning from nine to 12 in the next 14 games puts the Reds in a very interesting position, where it becomes a serious case of being buyers at the deadline. The Reds have two things going on in this regard. First, rather than being mediocre from top to bottom, the system has very clear highlights and lowlights, and the holes are easier to direct than the usual mediocrity. Second, the wild card spot is more important to the Reds than the average team, as the Greene-Burns one-two with Abbott chaser projects as one of the best hitters among various .500ish playoff contenders. Teams with a heavier rotation can punch above their weight class in the postseason as they get a heavier share of innings from their top starters than during the regular season. Get Cincinnati in the postseason, and the worst part of the rotation turns out to be the occasional fourth starter.
The Reds have made noise about running six before the season, without actually saying so. Injuries prevented that from happening, but for the first time this year, they can run around six people if they want (Greene, Burns, Abbott, Lodolo, Lowder, Singer). I hope they avoid that for now, even with Greene coming back. Every win right now is very important, so it’s not a good time to let your favorite sixth starter get innings if you can’t avoid it. The Reds need to cry fast or become sellers, so it’s time to push their chips.
Will there be a postseason mayoral bet where Cincinnati mayor Aftab Pureval bets a shilling against another city’s possibly better offer? Probably not. But for that to happen, the team needs to have its best two weeks of the season and enter the trade deadline with a reason to add talent. Getting there will require Hunter Greene to return to Cy Young form, and quickly.
