On April 21, Grant Anderson inherited a hot streak. With the Brewers leading 3-0 in the fourth inning, starter Kyle Harrison lost his cool. He walked Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson in two uncontested plate appearances, then gave up a line drive on one of his slowest fastballs of the day, a cookie cut up the middle by Hao-Yu Lee. Pat Murphy called Anderson out of the bullpen to face the bases loaded with nobody out.
Anderson delivered almost flawlessly. He got Javier Báez to double into the first, then struck out shortstop Kerry Carpenter to escape the inning with one run allowed. That run, of course, continued in Harrison’s book. Anderson got credit for the scoreless inning, no more or less.
On May 16, Chase Silseth tried to pull off a similar trick. José Soriano pitched five solid innings against the Dodgers, but didn’t have it in the sixth. After a pitch to open the inning, he walked four of five batters and struck out five, driving in two runs and leaving the bases loaded. Silseth went in to put out the fire – but may have poured kerosene on it. He struck out the first batter he faced, then gave up two quick runs, pushing the score to 6-0. He ended up getting the last two batters of the inning – meaning in the game’s official log, he pitched two out of three innings and didn’t score a run.
The two matchups went in very different directions. Anderson had a tough job and did better. But both got credit for a clean sheet. This is not only a problem with the way we calculate ERA, but one that stands out to anyone who follows it. Anderson and Silseth didn’t deserve the same accounting figures there. Likewise, Soriano scored three runs, while Harrison scored just one. But that didn’t show what happened to them – they both lost and had to be kicked out of the game because of all the athletes who allowed them.
I didn’t choose Anderson and Silseth at random. Anderson has been great this year even with standard pitching stats, with a 2.76 ERA and 3.88 FIP. But he has struck out 16 runners this season and allowed just two to score. On the other hand, he left the game with six runners on base – four of those guys scored. ERA tarnishes him; in fact, he has been unbelievable when it comes to keeping guys from scoring. Silseth has inherited 34 runners – 15 have scored. He has also been released as there are six runners left. None of these six have scored a goal.
Inherited runner nonsense includes ERA. But you can think of statistics that don’t have that same limitation. Or, at least, I can – so I made one. Every time a pitcher leaves a game, he leaves expecting to score a run. Such is the running expectation table. For example, after reaching a state with the bases loaded and one out, teams scored 1.62 runs per inning this year (excluding innings where the home team won the game before recording three outs). A pitcher from that situation allowed those runners to reach base, and left his team expecting those runs to score, regardless of what happened afterward.
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You can’t just pay those 1.62 runs to a pitcher, though. That’s because teams with nobody on base with one out still scored 0.27 runs per inning this year. So the expectation of those runners on base is 1.35 runs – the difference between how many teams scored on average from the start and how much they scored on average starting in the tail round.
I bet every pitcher who left the game in the middle of an inning on that difference – the difference between the expectation of his condition and the expectation of a run with the same number of outs and nobody on base. Then I put those runs into the reliever instead. When the actual runs did or did not score, I put them in the reliever’s notebook. I did all of this in RA9 space instead of ERA, because I didn’t want to deal with scoring decisions.
As an example, let’s take Soriano and Silseth. Soriano allowed three runs before striking out one in the sixth. I got him another 1.35 runs from where he left the game. That results in 4.35 runs allowed. Silseth entered with 1.35 earned runs, but then allowed three runs to score before closing out the inning. My method is that he “allowed” 1.65 runs in those two-thirds of an inning, the difference between the three runs he actually scored and the 1.35 runs we were already giving Soriano.
In the case of Anderson and Harrison, I used the same method and got some interesting results. Harrison left the game with the bases loaded and nobody out, or 2.08 runs worse than leaving the bases empty. I pulled him through those runs. Anderson pitched 2.08 runs for good and allowed a run to score. That means that in his career innings, he has allowed -1.08 runs. In other words, I gave him the moniker “RE-RA9” — my name for this adjusted run expectancy figure. Oh, one last little correction: In extra innings, the pitcher who starts the inning gets negative runs added to his ghost runner book. An extra scoreless inning is actually quite a bit better than not allowing a run in a typical inning, so I counted that.
Anderson benefits greatly from this re-framing of runs allowed. His 3.07 RA9 is good to begin with. But that was brought down by runners reaching the limit against him scoring after he was thrown out and the odd runner, and it doesn’t credit him for the impressive job he did to keep inherited runners from scoring. Account for all that, and throw in 1.72 RE-RA9. This is one of the biggest gaps in baseball.
Silseth has a different story. His actual RA9 is a very nice 1.77. But that ignores the fact that none of the runners allowed to reach the finish line scored, as well as the fact that he was mean-spirited enough to prevent the inherited runners from scoring. Put all that together and his RE-RA9 is 3.61. That’s not a bad sign – but it’s much closer to how you’re thrown than a single handle number.
Articles like this always need tables, so here are 10 shortcuts that benefit the most from this method of allocating runs:
Major Beneficiaries of RE-RA9
Of course, the other side is equally interesting:
The Biggest Difference Between RA9 and RE-RA9
Woodford’s line is brilliant. He has been sired by eight runners. Six of them have scored goals. And they weren’t even won in the most difficult situations – he had very bad luck stopping them from scoring.
A few odds and ends: Among pitchers who have thrown 20 innings, Robert Suarez has the lowest RE-RA9 in baseball, an impressive 0.35. Justin Lawrence has the worst RE-RA9 at 8.70, but that’s because he has an 8.54 RA9. This figure looks like an actual ERA – most of the pitcher’s runs have already been properly credited. But if you’re wondering why a certain pitcher’s ERA doesn’t match what you think of him, this might be the case.
Starters don’t have the same kind of turnover that relievers do in this count, because their statistical record is mostly comprised of innings started and innings completed. But that doesn’t mean there is no effect. Anderson’s teammate, Brandon Sproat, had a lot of luck with the runners he left behind – he had 11 runners on base, with 3.5 runs scored, but seven of those runners scored. His 5.18 RE-RA9 isn’t great, but it’s much better than his 5.70 ERA:
Major Beneficiaries of RE-RA9 (Starters)
On the other side of the ledger, Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease stand out as good hitters who get good work from their pitchers. Schlittler left 12 runners on, and he is expected to score 5.2 runs on them. Only one of these runners has scored a goal. Only one of Cease’s seven inherited runners scored. Sean Burke left 11 runners on and none of them scored. Not a bad job if you can find:
Major Differences Between RA9 and RE-RA9 (For Beginners)
I don’t know what this figure means in terms of predicting future performance, because runs allowed aren’t all that predictive. But this version of the run allowed metric does a little better at allocating that run, and in that way I think I like it better. I’m not saying you should stop using ERA, or that this is the new best stat in baseball, or anything like that. But if you’re wondering who’s really fit to run when he’s letting loose going in and melting down with men on base, I think this build is the right way to think about it.
