We have a fun mix of summons and vets in this version of Fact or Fiction! Sadly, we’re looking forward to fantasy baseball around the country after a brutal week of injuries.
Jose Ramirez, Oneil Cruz, and Vinnie Pasquantino all broke their hands in the past few days. Also, Corey Seager, Randy Arozarena, and Seiya Suzuki are living day to day with nagging injuries. Don’t get me started on the pitchers…
Alas, fantasy baseball leagues are won by the waiver wire, rather than draft day.
1B Paul Goldschmidt (NYY)
Old friend (emphasis old) Paul Goldschmidt is an important dream as well. The 2022 MVP was headed for retirement after last year’s 10 HR in 146 games. His wRC+ from 2024-2025 was a paltry 102, while his total fWAR through 300 games was just 2.0.
Still, we have life! Goldschmidt has eight HRs, 23 runs, and 28 RBIs, with a .287/.366/.524 slash line through 42 games. His xwOBA is a stellar .378, and he’s playing regularly because of the Yankees’ injuries. While playing an offense without Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton doesn’t help, more playing time is good for fantasy baseball.
Part of Goldschmidt’s production thus far may be due to the extra rest he’s had at the age of 38, but with his production and scheduling, it’s hard to ignore him in the fantasy as an everyday player.
TRUE (while playing daily)
1B/3B Blaze Jordan (STL)
Blaze Jordan sounds like a 13-year-old Xbox gamer, but he’s much more than that. He is a thick corner infielder with a solid hit tool and good pop. Unfortunately, that pop is often left out.
Jordan’s groundball rate across the kids has hovered around 50% (very high). His GB/FB rate has increased as he’s moved up in the minors. There is credit because Jordan hit well in Double-A (167 wRC+) in 22 and Triple-A (137 wRC+) in 23, mostly with good plate discipline.
However, he is doing projects like Andrew Vaughn right now. This doesn’t make him a bad hitter, but it does make him difficult to project on a weekly basis in fantasy baseball. Maybe he can get some advice from teammate Jordan Walker on how to lower his GB% significantly after one season?
FICTION (outside 15tm league)
BY Cole Carrigg (COL)
The Rockies called up the button-hitting Carrigg this past week, and he has produced immediately. Carrigg has two HRs and three through five games. He is starting in the middle of the program, he has a good chance to rise if he continues to hit.
Colorado hitters are easily attracted because of the nature of Coors Field. However, we are often fooled by hot starts from middling prospects or veterans. This may vary. Carrigg is a Rockies player (which isn’t saying much) and has hit well throughout his minor league career.
Despite being a year older than we’d like in High-A (22), Double-A (23), and Triple-A (24), Carrigg has done something at each level that any fantasy fan would appreciate.
High-A – 111 games, 51 SB
Double-A – 123 games, 46 SB
Triple-A – 57 games, 30 SB
This guy is a SB machine, even though he doesn’t have a single MLB SB yet. The bat is probably for a hitter, but with his speed and Coors’ offensive numbers, we have to see what he can do in 12+ team programs.
TRUE (especially if you need a SB)
BY Braden Montgomery (CHW)
The White Sox participated in the artists’ party this week as well. Braden Montgomery was called up to join teammate Montgomery (Colson) on Chicago’s regular roster. The former first-round pick has been dominant in Triple-A this season. He posted a .315/.417/.495 line through 29 games after having a 170 wRC+ in Double-A this year.
The 23-year-old seems to have a bright future in the big leagues. His strikeout rate among all the kids is the highest, but it has risen to 25%. He’s performed well above average at every level, while still having solid years throughout his young career. The biggest concern for Montgomery is his home run power. He has pop, but is a more extreme groundball hitter at times than the aforementioned Blaze Jordan.
Still, Montgomery pitches in an improved White Sox offense that has a chance to hit every time given his OBP and hitting ability. He deserves a shot for a few weeks to see what can happen. Hey, you already have one HR!
TRUE (more in OBP/score leagues)
SP Anthony Kay (CHW)
Anthony Kay has a 3.27 ERA in 41 1/3 IP since May. Also, he recently allowed two runs in five IP to the Los Angeles Dodgers, while striking out seven batters and walking zero.
There is a proper plot to Kay, but this may be a fugazi. He has a 5.89 xERA this season, with a 4.84 xFIP and a 4.60 SIERA. His peripherals have improved since they started running in May, however they are still over 4.00 each. The former first-round pick who spent the past two years in Japan has gone from an unplayable MLB pitcher to a back-end starter on a hot streak.
Kay has thrown six IP in just one start this season. He should be spread around some spots, but he’s not a fantasy baseball catcher.
FICTION
SP Sean Manaea (NYM)
Is Sean Manaea…back? Many ask, and I answer them. An important note is that his velocity is “regressing” after starting the season with a fastball averaging 90 MPH.
Unfortunately, Manaea’s fastball is erratic. He hit a high of 93.2 MPH in his most recent start against the Braves, with a low of 87.3 MPH. This is still an improvement, especially considering that most of his fastballs were over 90 MPH. However, Manaea is playing very well in recent outings. He hasn’t allowed more than two ERs since April 29 and just finished six IP (season high) in his first “start” of the season.
While the Mets continue to shine, there is some good news here. Manaea is coming back and is worth planning for the foreseeable future. Also, two of his next three games will be against the Phillies and Blue Jays, both of whom are battling for LHP.
THE TRUTH
SP Javier Assad (CHC)
Javier Assad has now completed two straight 6 IP starts with no runs, 10 total strikeouts, and just two walks allowed. Although these starts came with the San Francisco Giants, they are worth paying attention to. Assad’s role this season has changed between the starter and the long man, but his services are needed due to the injury of Chicago’s SP.
There is a significant increase in the average velocity of Assad’s fastball this season (93.2 MPH) compared to the previous two seasons (91.8 MPH), but no significant increase in strikeout rate. There is a drop in the walk rate to 7% so far, and if it continues, Assad can continue to have a good start here and there with his ability to produce ground balls (47.4%).
Assad is more of a broadcaster than a must-have starter, and his next few starters have lined up well against the Rockies (Chicago), Mets, Padres, and Cardinals.
TRUTH (as broadcaster)
